November 3, 2025 | Real Estate Market Update for Northville, Novi, South Lyon, Plymouth and Metro Detroit | Insights by Jeff Duneske, Northville Realtor®

November 3, 2025 Real Estate Market Update for Northville, Novi, South Lyon, Plymouth and Metro Detroit

Mortgage rates have finally settled closer to six percent and for serious buyers and sellers in Metro Detroit, that is a quiet but important shift.

Behind the scenes, it is not just the Federal Reserve driving this improvement. The real story is mortgage spreads and how investors price risk in the bond market. Those spreads have improved enough in 2025 to keep rates in the six percent range instead of drifting back toward seven percent.

Today I want to break down what that means for you if you are thinking about your next move in Northville, Novi, South Lyon, Plymouth or the surrounding communities.

Mortgage spreads are the unsung hero keeping rates near six percent

Housing experts report that mortgage spreads improved by about 0.42 percentage points in 2025. That spread improvement is the main reason thirty-year mortgage rates are hovering near six percent instead of closer to seven percent.

A few key points from the latest data:

• In 2024 the average spread was about 2.54 percentage points. The forecast for 2025 called for a modest improvement, and that’s what we are seeing now.

• Historically, spreads tend to sit in a much lower range, around 1.6 to 1.8 percentage points, so conditions are better but not yet back to normal.

• If spreads were as wide as they were at the peak in 2023, today’s mortgage rates would be almost one full percentage point higher.

• If spreads moved back into their normal historic range, thirty-year mortgage rates would likely sit in the mid-five-percent range rather than the low sixes.

Last week, the ten-year Treasury yield ended around 4.08 percent, while average thirty-year mortgage rates came in near 6.28 percent. The important takeaway is that, unlike in 2024, rates have not surged higher after recent Fed decisions. That stability gives serious buyers more confidence to act and allows sellers to plan with a little more clarity.

Purchase applications show demand is quietly building

Even with all the noise from holidays and a recent AWS outage that distorted some of the weekly housing data, the trend in purchase applications remains positive.

Over the last thirteen weeks with mortgage rates under roughly 6.64 percent, purchase applications have shown:

• Eight positive weekly readings

• Five negative readings

• Thirteen straight weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth

Last week alone, purchase applications were up five percent week over week and about twenty percent compared to the same week last year. Year to date, there have been more positive weeks than negative ones, and we’ve now seen thirty-nine consecutive weeks of positive year-over-year purchase demand.

For buyers in Northville, Novi, South Lyon, and Plymouth, this means you’re not alone. As rates ease, more buyers are stepping back into the market. For sellers, it confirms that serious demand is there when a home is priced correctly and presented well.

Inventory, new listings and home turnover remain tight

Even as demand improves, the number of homes actually selling and coming to market remains very limited by historical standards.

National inventory:

• Inventory growth earlier this year peaked around 33 percent.

• That growth rate has now cooled to about 16.45 percent.

• For the most recent week, total inventory fell from about 867,811 listings to 856,701 nationally.

New listings:

• New listings saw a historic week-to-week drop from about 69,000 to 51,000.

• This year that same week recorded roughly 50,827 new listings compared with about 60,819 the prior year.

• Peak season had a goal of reaching 80,000 new listings a week; the market touched that level but never moved meaningfully higher.

Most importantly, only 28 out of every 1,000 homes in the United States changed hands in the first nine months of 2025. That’s a national turnover rate of about 2.8 percent, the lowest in at least three decades and more than 30 percent below 2019 levels.

Why turnover is so low:

• More than 70 percent of homeowners with a mortgage enjoy a rate below five percent, while current rates are above six percent, so many feel locked in.

• New listings are still far below pre-pandemic norms. So far in 2025, only 39 out of every 1,000 homes were listed for sale, compared with more than 50 per 1,000 in 2019.

For Metro Detroit, the story is similar. Nice homes that are well priced in Northville, Novi, South Lyon, and Plymouth still draw strong attention, but many owners are staying put because moving would mean giving up a very low mortgage rate.

Luxury home prices are rising faster than the rest of the market

On the higher end of the market, luxury buyers continue to play by a different set of rules.

The typical luxury home in the United States sold for about $1.26 million in September 2025, an increase of 4.8 percent compared with the same time last year and more than twice the pace of price growth in the non-luxury segment. Non-luxury prices rose about 1.8 percent to a median of just over $371,000.

A few highlights from the luxury data:

• Luxury prices have outpaced non-luxury prices for nearly two years.

• Luxury sales were slightly higher year over year, while non-luxury sales were slightly lower and still near their slowest levels since 2013.

• Luxury inventory increased about 7.7 percent, the highest September level since 2020, but remains well below levels from a decade ago.

Speed of sale matters too. Luxury homes took a median of 52 days to go under contract nationally. Non-luxury homes took about 43 days. Among the fastest luxury markets in the country, Detroit stands out with a median of about 16 days on market for high-end properties, alongside San Jose and St. Louis.

That lines up with what I’m seeing locally. Well-presented luxury homes in and around Northville, Novi, and Plymouth that are priced correctly are still moving quickly, especially if they offer lifestyle advantages like golf course frontage, lake access, or walkable downtown amenities.

What this means for buyers and sellers in Northville, Novi, South Lyon, and Plymouth

Here’s how I would translate all of this into local guidance for you right now.

For homeowners thinking about selling:
Low turnover and limited new listings mean you still have a real advantage if you decide to bring a move-in-ready home to market this fall or winter. With mortgage spreads holding rates near six percent and purchase applications rising, you can still capture strong buyer demand without facing the heavy competition that may come when more owners finally decide to list.

For move-up buyers:
If you’re in a starter home and would like more space, it’s tempting to wait for lower rates. The risk is that when rates eventually move closer to five percent, both prices and competition may climb. Locking in a home that truly fits your life now, with a plan to refinance later if rates improve, can be smarter than waiting for the perfect rate and facing ten other offers.

For first-time buyers:
The combination of slightly better affordability and still tight inventory calls for preparation. Get fully underwritten and pre-approved, understand your monthly comfort level, and be ready to act when the right home appears. In our market, the best homes still attract strong interest within the first week.

For rightsizers and retirees:
If you’re in a larger home in Northville, Novi, South Lyon, or Plymouth and have been waiting for the right time to simplify, today’s environment offers a nice window. You can often sell a larger property at a premium due to low turnover and then target a more manageable condo, ranch, or low-maintenance home while luxury and upper-mid-price inventory gradually improves.

For luxury buyers and sellers:
On the luxury side, wealthier buyers are still active and often paying cash or using smaller loans, which makes them less sensitive to rate moves. That’s why luxury prices are rising faster than the rest of the market. If you’re selling a high-end home, proper pricing, presentation, and targeted marketing are essential. If you’re buying, you’ll want clear data on days on market, recent sale prices, and how your target area compares to broader Metro Detroit patterns.

Let’s talk about your game plan

Every move is personal. The national story of mortgage spreads, turnover, and luxury prices is helpful, but what really matters is how these trends intersect with your home, your timeline, and your financial plan.

If you are considering a move in Northville, Novi, South Lyon, or Plymouth, I would be happy to walk you through a custom strategy, whether you are buying, selling, rightsizing, or exploring a luxury purchase.

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